Friday, 5 October 2012

Week 7 Preview: Big Sam v Arsene

This weekend sees the return of an old rivalry as Big Sam's Hammers will no doubt welcome Arsenal with some rather lovely hospitality...

West Ham v Arsenal - We all remember the duel of Sam Allardyce's Bolton v Arsenal don't we? And the same post match interviews from Arsene every time where he complained about Bolton's physicality? What about Nicolas Anelka's thunderbolt against his old team? Or Stelios' goal to condemn them to defeat? It always used to seem that Arsenal were just not capable of coping with Bolton and would wilt under the pressure. Well expect more of the same this weekend. Arsene Wenger has won only 2 of his 9 away games as a manager against a Sam Allardyce team (W2 D3 L4), and there is plenty of reason to believe his side will have the same problem again. However, as a side note, 3 of those victories came in succession between 2004 and 2007 so Arsenal have arguably learnt to cope better with Allardyce teams since this run. West Ham could have Andy Carroll back from the start for this game which would give them even more physicality, directness and quality than Carlton Cole provides, and he could really torment the Arsenal defence. Therefore, a lot could hinge on whether Per Mertesacker recovers from his virus in time. Arsenal have won 4 their last 4 matches against West Ham in all competitions, but that was B.A. (No not Baracus - Before Allardyce), so I don't know how much to read into that. West Ham have started the season really well and actually sit directly above Arsenal in the table, so this isn't a guaranteed three points for the Gooners. The Hammers would do well to start with Matt Jarvis after he impressed at QPR on Monday night and will be the perfect foil for Andy Carroll. Arsenal will undoubtedly miss the physical presence of Abou Diaby in midfield and they could struggle to curb Kevin Nolan's late runs into the box. All in all, I think West Ham will cause Arsenal problems and I'm going to stick my neck out and say Arsenal will struggle after playing in Europe in the week.

Prediction: West Ham 2 - 1 Arsenal

Man City v Sunderland - The early kick off on Saturday at the Emptihad sees Man City play the only team to take 4 points off of them last season in the league - Sunderland. It strikes me that there are two big questions for Saturdays game: 1) Will anyone else but Steven Fletcher score for Sunderland? And 2) Will Mancini ever realise that three at the back isn't working? City were incredibly lucky to pick up a draw against Dortmund in the week, after the German champions had 10 more shots than them (which as an away team in Europe I find amazing, since there wasn't a mismatch of quality on paper!).  The three at the back experiment on Wednesday night was pretty disastrous in my opinion; if Dortmund had put their shooting boots on it could have been 4 or 5 and Mancini seemed to realise this by abandoning the system after around 10 minutes. City's defenders just aren't pacey enough for this system and until Micah Richards comes back from injury it is impossible to see it working any time soon. Which begs the question - why fix it if it's not broken? Last year in this fixture Sunderland went 3-1 up but late goals (an uncanny knack now for City) pegged them back and earned City a 3-3 draw. But it is hard to see the Mackems repeating this scoring feat given the fact they've only scored 5 goals all season (and these have all come from Fletcher!) It is well documented that City haven't kept a clean sheet so far this season but you would expect them to focus on keeping Fletcher quiet and this will be the best chance for them to keep a clean sheet probably all season. Though it will be intriguing to see how Adam Johnson does against his old side as he surely has a point to prove. Discarded by Mancini for an apparent clash of personality, how better to show him what he missed by running riot against this dodgy defence? However, City are unbeaten in their last 32 games at home in the league and it is nigh on impossible not to see this run continuing. Expect a first clean sheet of the season for City and an easy win. The only factor that appears to be in Sunderland's favour is that City played on Wednesday evening and have only had 2 days rest before this game, while Sunderland have had 7 days rest. But given the size of City's squad, this shouldn't really be an issue.


Prediction: Man City 3-0 Sunderland


We thought we'd preview the stand out massive battle in the Football League this weekend: Crewe v Hartlepool - This is a match between 2 sides desperately out of form at the moment (and identically so at that!): they are both without a win in their last 6 games, and both have lost their last 2 league games to boot. Both sides have only scored 8 goals all season (less than 1 a game) and both have conceded at over a rate of 1 per game, so it should be an interesting encounter at the Alexandra Stadium. I can't decide whether the lack of firepower will cause a low scoring affair or the leaky defences will contribute to a goal-fest. But the fact that Crewe have only scored once in their last 4 games indicates it's unlikely the floodgates will open on their end. It is a stark contrast to the last match between these sides in August in the first round of the CoC - when Crewe ran out 5-0 winners and looked full of goals. Crewe lost 2-0 to Oldham on Tuesday, this was the first time they have lost back-to-back games since Steve Davis took over 11 months ago, so it will be a test to see how they react. Hartlepool have only won one game all season though so this is a game the Alex should be looking at winning. Max Clayton was rested for the Oldham game and Byron Moore should hopefully be fit so there are more attacking options available for Crewe, and all being well this should see them through.


Prediction: Crewe 2-1 Hartlepool

Elsewhere...

It's a battle of two relegated sides in the Championship as Blackburn host Wolves, both sides having had contrasting runs of late but find themselves as neighbours in the play-off positions in the league ladder, proof if ever you needed it that you can take virtually nothing from league positions after nine games and that it is ludicrous that managers are getting the boot based on positions in the table now. Yorkshire derbies between Leeds and Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday should keep the plods busy whilst in League Two Exeter v Port Vale looks an intriguing encounter.

Last but by no means least, onto our teams. J's Manchester United will be hoping for a more positive result than last week's surprise defeat at home to Spurs, but it doesn't get any easier for them as they head to Newcastle away. The Sports Direct Arena was the scene of United's heaviest away league defeat last season as they went down  3-0 to a Newcastle side at the top of their game. This will certainly be the biggest test of Newcastle's credentials for a repeat of last season's top six finish this time around.

C's off to the highest football league ground above sea level in England to see West Bromwich Albion take on winless QPR. The home side have played three, won three, conceded none at their Hawthorns home, so things are looking ominous. The injury situation hasn't changed for the Hoops either and they are missing Samba Diakite after his kamikaze twenty minute performance and subsequent sending off on Monday night. But we all live in hope...

Union Berlin are continuing their promising run in the German 2nd Division and we have just received confirmation that they have picked up another point away from home! This time a Torsten Mattuschka (der beste Mann) brace saw them claim a 2:2 draw at what is normally an extremely tough place to go. Admittedly, St Pauli haven't had the best of seasons so far (winning just once) but Union are notoriously travel sick, so any point away from home should be viewed as a victory! (Much like QPR!)

Enjoy the weekend's football and we'll be back with a weekend review and match review of WBA v QPR on Monday.

C&J

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